Crime continued to decline in 2025, with homicides down 21 percent from 2024 and 44 percent from a peak in 2021, according to a new analysis of crime trends in 40 large U.S. cities released by the nonpartisan think tank Council on Criminal Justice.

If federal nationwide data, which is set to be released later this year, reflects similar trends, the national homicide rate could fall to its lowest level in more than a century.

The Council on Criminal Justice study analyzed 13 types of offenses — from homicides to drug crimes to shoplifting — in cities that have consistently published monthly data over the past eight years. Researchers found that 11 of the 13 offenses were lower in 2025 than in 2024, with nine dropping by 10 percent or more.

Drug offenses were the only category to rise, while sexual assaults remained unchanged.

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Carjackings and shoplifting also declined sharply. Reported carjackings fell 61 percent from 2023, while reported shoplifting dropped 10 percent from 2024.

Among the 35 cities reporting homicides, nearly all recorded declines. Denver; Omaha, Nebraska; and Washington, D.C., saw homicide rates drop roughly 40 percent.

There were some modest increases, including in Little Rock, Arkansas; Fort Worth, Texas; and Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The homicide rate in El Paso, Texas, remained flat. Overall, 922 fewer homicides were reported across the cities in the sample.

The downward trends extend beyond homicides. In 2025, reported incidents of aggravated assaults fell 9 percent, gun assaults 22 percent, robberies 23 percent, residential burglaries 17 percent, nonresidential burglaries 18 percent, larcenies 11 percent, and domestic violence 2 percent.

Looking at longer-term trends, violent crime levels in most cities are at or below pre-pandemic levels, the analysis found. Homicides were 25 percent lower than in 2019, with Baltimore seeing the largest drop at 60 percent. Milwaukee had the largest increase in homicides, at 42 percent.

Robberies, carjackings, domestic violence incidents, gun assaults, aggravated assaults and sexual assaults also remained below 2019 levels. Only motor vehicle thefts and nonresidential burglaries remained slightly elevated.

Nonviolent crimes have shown varied trends over the past seven years. Burglaries fell 45 percent, larcenies 20 percent, drug offenses 19 percent, and shoplifting 4 percent compared with 2019 levels.

The Council on Criminal Justice also examined trends from recent peaks, finding substantial declines in all major offense categories. Homicides fell 44 percent from their 2021 peak, gun assaults fell 44 percent, aggravated assaults 19 percent, domestic violence 23 percent, robbery 39 percent, carjackings 61 percent, residential burglaries 51 percent, and motor vehicle thefts 43 percent.

Despite the downward trajectory, researchers caution that the reasons for the decline are uncertain. Changes in criminal justice policies, law enforcement practices, crime-fighting technology, social and economic conditions, and local violence prevention efforts could all be contributing factors, according to the analysis.